My method of forecasting is pretty simple. In fact, so simple, I call it the K.I.S.S. method. Even though the LEI is the statistic most denigrated by Wall Street forecasters, it has the inconvenient habit of being right more often than the highly-paid punditocracy, especially at turning points.
Since I'm not a highly paid Wall Street pundit, I simply rely upon the LEI for the short term, and several methods of looking at long leading indicators for the second half of the year.
Since I'm not a highly paid Wall Street pundit, I simply rely upon the LEI for the short term, and several methods of looking at long leading indicators for the second half of the year.
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