Since the beginning of this year, I have taken the position that the industrial portion of the economy was likely to make a rebound from its shallow recession by the end of the second quarter. This started with last autumn's LEI's, and has since flowed through to ISM and regional Fed new orders, the flattening out of the trade weighted US$, a big decline in corporate bond yields, and a similar big decline in spreads. These are the types of data that historically - going back 100 years in some cases - precede the end of a slowdown or recession via an increase in sales and production.
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