Several months ago I made a qualified forecast for continued growth in the second half of 2016. On Friday, the BEA finally reported corporate profits for the 4th Quarter of last year. While usually proprietors' income (reported in the initial GDP release) tracks corporate profits well, sometimes they do lag, and this was one of those times, as profits declined significantly. Beyond that, we now have two to three months of data on the remaining long leading indicators, so this is an important time to update my outlook.
And the news isn't good.
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