I have two templates for the current US economy. The first, as I wrote last week, is the 1986 50%+ decline in the price of gas. The second blueprint, for whether the current industrial downturn will turn into a general recession, and if so for how long it is likely to last, is the 2001 recession. In that recession GDP barely suffered at all, and consumer spending went sideways rather than down - although spending on houses and cars did decline somewhat. Rather, it was business spending that suffered.
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