Narrow ranges have been prevailing into the FOMC, which is the first Fed meeting where there is a possibility of rate action -- albeit very remote -- in quite literally years. No policy action is widely anticipated, but markets will scrutinize the statement, forecast revisions and Yellen's press conference for clues on the timing of a first tightening. On net, we expect that the door to rate lift-off in September will be left open, but cautiously so with the stress that the path to tightening will remain data dependent.
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